With Toys R Us gone, who will become the main toy retailer?

In response to the news that Toys R Us will be closing it’s 800 U.S. locations, we decided to conduct a location affinity analysis, a report that reveals what brands consumers are more or less likely to visit. This allows us to predict where Toys R Us visitors will shop once the big box retailer has closed its doors.

While there is no denying that Toys R Us was feeling the effects of Amazon, big box retailers are also becoming major players in the toy business. In fact, Hasbro and Mattel, which each report 10% of overall sales from Toys R Us, are also sold in Target and Walmart. According to CNNMoney, Target meets Toys R Us’ share of sales, while Walmart exceeds both retailers, accounting for 20% of overall sales for both toy makers. Will Target or Walmart win Toys R Us shoppers?

Toys R Us shoppers choose Target over Walmart

Our analysis suggests that although Toys R Us shoppers are more likely to visit both Target and Walmart than the average American consumer, they are 1.7x more likely to visit Target (96.22%) over Walmart (56.65%).

Bargain retailers to see a Toys R Us bump

Expanding analysis to include kids’ resale store Once Upon a Child and the official Disney retailer, The Disney Store,  Toys R Us shoppers are almost 2x more likely to visit Once Upon a Child (110.27%) over The Disney Store (56.04%), suggesting that Toys R Us parents appreciate affordable products over the often pricey licensed Disney merchandise.

Analysis in this report was done with UberMedia Vista, an insights-as-a-service platform that provides mobile location data, analytics, and media measurement for businesses of all sizes. Mobile data used in this analysis came from UberMedia’s aggregation of multiple sources and advanced data processing.